MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (LINGLING) WARNING NR 09// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 15W (LINGLING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 317 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A RAGGED EYE, WHICH HAS RECENTLY CLEARED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND A FORWARD EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 032241Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH DEPICTED A WELL-DEFINED BUT RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONCENTRATED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5/4.5 FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND THE REAPPEARANCE OF THE RAGGED EYE STRUCTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST, GIVEN THAT MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TY 15W CONTINUES ITS TEMPORARY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION, IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH NORTHEAST CHINA. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR TY 15W THROUGH TAU 72. AS THE STR BUILDS BACK TOWARD THE WEST, TY 15W WILL TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW TY 15W TO STEADILY INTENSIFY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS EXPECTED BY TAU 36 TO 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT TY 15W WILL TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN THE NEAR TERM, FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. C. IN THE LONG TERM, TY 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD WHILE BEING STEERED BY THE STR TO THE EAST. BEYOND TAU 48, AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE TY 15W TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE KOREAN PENINSULA, BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE ALONG-TRACK AND CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BEYOND TAU 96. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE.// NNNN NNNN