MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (MITAG) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (MITAG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 394 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (AMSI) REVEALS DISTINCT RAIN BANDS AND A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED OFF THE AMSI, A MICROWAVE EYE IN A PARTIAL 292331Z GMI 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS). LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THEREFORE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. TY 19W IS TRACKING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. BY TAU 36, TY 19W WILL CREST THE STR AXIS AND GRADUALLY BEGIN TURNING ONTO A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24, HOWEVER LAND INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION. PRIOR TO TAU 36, LAND INTERACTION WITH COASTAL CHINA, COOL SST, AND HIGH VWS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE NEAR- TERM INTENSITY FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY OF THE TRACK TO CHINA AND TAIWAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF RE-CURVATURE BUT ALONG-TRACK SPEED DIFFERENCES INCREASE AFTER TAU 48, LEADING TO FAIR OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST. C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 19W WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND START EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). PRIOR TO TAU 120, TY 19W WILL HAVE COMPLETELY TRANSITIONED INTO A COLD-CORE LOW AS IT APPROACHES JAPAN. DUE TO A COMBINATION OF ALONG-TRACK AND CROSS-TRACK UNCERTAINTY, SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT TAU 120 IS 356 NM. FOR THAT REASON, THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN