MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 154 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-SIZED SYSTEM WITH COMPACT RAIN BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A SYMMETRIC 10NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE, ADJUSTED FOR A SLIGHT TILT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85KTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5/77KTS TO T5.0/90KTS AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DUAL OUTFLOW - EASTWARD AND EQUATORWARD; HOWEVER, A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE AND STIFLING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK SST VALUES AT 30C REMAIN CONDUCIVE. TY 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 22W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 BEFORE TURNING MORE NORTHWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE STR AXIS. FUELED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED OVERALL FAVORABLE DYNAMICS THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 95KTS BY TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS THEN PEAK TO 120KTS BY TAU 72 NEAR IWO TO, JAPAN. C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 22W WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER IT CRESTS THE STR AND GRADUALLY THEN RAPIDLY DECAY MOSTLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS. CONCURRENTLY AT TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 120 WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN 80KT COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD COALESCING WITH THE BAROCLINIC WIND FLOW. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL SPREADING TO 135NM AT TAU 72 AND WIDER BUT GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREADING TO 190NM AT TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN