MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A 10 NM EYE AND CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES, ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KTS) FROM RJTD, AND A SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 120 KTS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 115 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. TY 22W REMAINS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THERE IS NEAR-RADIAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, A TUTT CELL TO THE SOUTHWEST MAY INHIBIT STRONG DEVELOPMENT OF OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH. TY 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 22W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. AROUND TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE RIDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48 WITH LOW VWS AND WARM SST. HOWEVER, THE TUTT CELL TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL TAU 72, INHIBITING SUBSTANTIAL INTENSIFICATION AND OFFSETTING POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT WILL BE ENHANCED AS THE SYSTEM TAPS INTO THE TROUGH. AFTER TAU 48, TY 22W WILL SHIFT TO A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AS THE SYSTEM RECURVES. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48 REMAINS 60 NM AND INCREASES TO 130 NM AT TAU 72 AFTER THE RECURVE. THE ONE OUTLIER IS NAVGEM TO THE EAST. THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IS SIMILAR IN ALL MODELS; HOWEVER, THERE ARE SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE. C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 22W BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND TRACKS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR THE SYSTEM WITH VWS VALUES GREATER THAN 40 KTS, OFFSETTING THE ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING TY 22W. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD AS IT COMPLETES ETT. BY TAU 96, NUMERICAL MODELS DIVERGE TO 295 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD WHEN ETT IS COMPLETED. DESPITE THIS, THERE IS HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN