MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 02// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF BANDING CONVECTION LOOSELY ORGANIZED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE IMPROVEMENT OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 25 KNOTS WHICH ARE BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) AND LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NEARBY ISLANDS AND SHIPS TRANSITING THROUGH THE REGION. OBSERVATIONS FURTHER AWAY AND NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM INDICATE MUCH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS DUE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FUNNELING THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT, BUT AT THIS TIME ARE NOT WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM INDUCING STEADY EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE RAPID WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION, WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY FAVORABLE AND SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE ALSO FAVORABLE NEAR 29 TO 30 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TD 23W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF A WELL- ESTABLISHED MID-TO-LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 23W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST, GUIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. FURTHER CONSOLIDATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH TD 23W REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS AS UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVER THE VERY WARM WATER OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF CHINA. LANDFALL IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTHERN REGION OF VIETNAM JUST AFTER TAU 24. TD 23W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BOTH TRACK AND SPEED, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN