MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA) WARNING NR 26// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 91 NM EAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A RECENT PGTW SATELLITE FIX, A 202304Z 37 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE, AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM HONG KONG. THE INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. TY 25W HAS MAINTAINED A BROAD CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND A LARGE (40 NM) EYE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TURN POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY HAS REMAINED CONSTANT UNDER THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, DECREASING ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND THE BROAD STORM STRUCTURE. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. B. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAKING LANDFALL TO THE EAST OF HONG KONG WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS. NEGLIGIBLE INTENSITY CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO LANDFALL, FOLLOWED BY RAPID DISSIPATION OVER LAND AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE STEERING RIDGE AXIS OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.// NNNN NNNN