MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT) WARNING NR 33// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 211 NM NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LARGE CYCLONE NO LONGER HAS AN EYE AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SERIOUSLY DEGRADED BY ITS PASSAGE OVER LUZON. DESPITE THAT IT REMAINS AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM ACTIVE REPORTING STATIONS ON THE ISLAND. THE PASSAGE OVER LUZON SIGNIFICANTLY ERODED THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE, MAKING THE INTENSITY DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY, WHICH IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS, USING THE RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) IS 27-29 CELSIUS. TY 26W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. THROUGH TAU 72, THE STR TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO STEER TY 26W ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. EXPECT SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IN THE SCS AND RAPID WEAKENING AFTER MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF HONG KONG AROUND TAU 36. FULL DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY TAU 72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED ABOVE THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BECAUSE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MODERATELY FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 36. SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS 175 NM AT TAU 72, THEREFORE THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN