MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 023// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A 10-NM RAGGED EYE AND IMPROVED SPIRAL BANDING. THIS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IS EVIDENT IN AN 180458Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWING A NEAR-COMPLETE EYEWALL SURROUNDING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EIR AND AMSR2 36GHZ IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 (55 KNOTS) TO T4.5 (77 KNOTS), WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE RAGGED EYE FEATURE. ADDITIONALLY, THE CIMSS SATCON AND ADT ESTIMATES INDICATE A SHARP SPIKE IN ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST EIGHT HOURS WITH CURRENT VALUES RANGING FROM 70-75 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TY 27W IS TRACKING SLOWLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE INITIAL 34-KNOT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY. B. TY 27W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN LUZON NEAR TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TY 27W WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND INCREASING VWS (25-30 KNOTS). NEAR TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN STR AND NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW WITH STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 72. TY KALMAEGI SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN