MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 28W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 28W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 408 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING SURROUNDING AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 210641Z SSMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT DEPICTS A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. FURTHERMORE, THE SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE BY 25-30 NM DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 60KTS IS BASED ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (RJTD) AND T4.0 (PGTW). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TS 28W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-25KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY WARM (26-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. FUNG-WONG IS BEGINNING TO TRACK NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS FUNG-WONG WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE JET STREAM AFTER TAU 24 WITH SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED VWS (35KTS) AND COOLER SSTS DROPPING TO 24C. AFTER TAU 36, THIS JET STREAM INTERACTION WILL FURTHER LEAD TO A CONTINUED INCREASE IN VWS (+60KTS) AND A RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN