MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH EXPANSIVE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A BROAD, OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 260647Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE WHICH DEPICTS EXTENSIVE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE BROAD, ILL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35KTS REFLECTS THE CONTINUED, GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND IS BASED ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 (PGTW/35KTS) AND 2.0 (RJTD/30KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TS 29W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 29W WILL CONTINUE ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STR THROUGH TAU 24, PASSING APPROXIMATELY 126 NM SOUTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. AFTERWARD, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE 29W TO TRACK MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. LOW VWS, COUPLED WITH WARM SST WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS THIS POLEWARD TRACK, EVENTUALLY INTENSIFYING TO 90KTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 29W WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD BETWEEN THE CURRENT STR AND A SECONDARY, BUILDING STR TO THE NORTHWEST. CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS DIVERGE AFTER TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM DRIVES POLEWARD. THE LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN