MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 199 NM NORTH OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE WITH NUMEROUS OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS AND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 280704Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK CURRENT ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND A 280408Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 70 KNOTS. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND A VERY WARM (30 DEGREES CELSIUS) ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BREAK THE STEERING STR AND DRIVE TY 29W NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE COL AND INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY STATE. AROUND TAU 24, AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES, A NEWLY-FORMED STR TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BUILD, REORIENT, AND SLOWLY DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO 130 KNOTS BY TAU 72. C. AFTER TAU 72, TY KAMMURI WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE SECONDARY STR AND OVER THE VERY WARM PHILIPPINE SEA TOWARD SOUTHERN LUZON, PHILIPPINES. INCREASED SHEAR, DRY AIR AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT ARE POSSIBLE CONTRIBUTORS TO DECREASED INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 96 AND 120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, NAVGEM STILL DEPICTS AN EARLY RECURVE TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE STORM MOTION UNCERTAINTY IN THE COL, THERE IS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IN THE LATER TAUS.// NNNN NNNN