MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING NR 25// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 30W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 296 NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED YET TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DE-COUPLED SOUTH OF AN AREA OF RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS SHEARING NORTHWARD. MSI SHOWS SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION OF COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, ASSOCIATED WITH AN INFLUX OF COOLER, DRIER AIR. A 270638Z SSMI 85GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE STILL REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS STRUCTURE AND DVORAK DATA-T ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS. TS 30W HAS RECENTLY TURNED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK WITHIN THE STRONG NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS NOCK-TEN IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE WEAKENING RAPIDLY DUE TO THE INFUSION OF COOLER, DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR. TS 30W SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 36. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, CONSEQUENTLY, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN