MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 08// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 436 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PERSISTENT CENTRAL COLD COVER (WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES -82C) OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 151131Z GPM 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND A 150945Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 43 KNOTS. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM PAGASA SHOWS HEAVY RAIN BANDS PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (30 TO 35 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TS 32W IS LOCATED WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST, AND A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTH, THEREFORE, MOTION IS SLOW AND PERHAPS QUASI-STATIONARY. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE IS A MODERATE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES, QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION AND BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC. HOWEVER, DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS REMAIN IN EXCEPTIONALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, AND DEPICT A SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER WATER THROUGH TAU 24. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY SLOWLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MAINTAIN AT 50 KNOTS AS IS TYPICAL WITH CENTRAL COLD COVER SCENARIOS. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, TS 32W SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY DUE TO PERSISTENT VWS AND LAND INTERACTION AS IT TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 32W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT. SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED BUT THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW. DISSIPATION IS ANTICIPATED AFTER TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN