MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 26// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 388 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER POSITIONED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF AN AREA OF INTENSE CENTRAL CONVECTION, WHICH PROVIDES FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. MSI ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG NORTHERLY TO NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL SURGE FLOW ADVECTING STRATOCUMULUS ALONG THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM. A 200138Z ASCAT IMAGE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURGE FLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THIS ASCAT DATA. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 27 TO 28C. TS 32W IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE SURGE FLOW. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE. B. TS 32W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE NORTHEAST SURGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED, LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSUMES THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EGRR AND AFUM, THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 AND SUPPORT THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. TS 32W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT 35 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW WEAKENS AND EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HINDERS DEVELOPMENT. TS KAI-TAK WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS OVER THE MALAY PENINSULA. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN