MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (TORAJI) WARNING NR 02// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (TORAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 199 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHT BALL OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTH OF A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 171407Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS HEDGED BETWEEN THE CENTER POSITION INDICATED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE PGTW FIX BASED ON EIR IMAGERY. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) AND THERE IS ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW HELPING TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE KNES AND RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS), SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PGTW ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KTS). TD 32W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 32W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR, WHICH SEPARATES THE EASTERN AND WESTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGES. AFTER TAU 12, TD 32W WILL TRACK UNDER THE WESTERN STR, WHICH WILL PRODUCE A WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH COAMPS-GFS AND HWRF THE SOUTHERN OUTLIERS. ALL MODELS BUT COAMPS-GFS DEPICT TD 32W MAKING LANDFALL IN THE NEAR TERM. TD 32W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY TAU 6 TO THE NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. AFTER TAU 12, TD 32W WILL WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OVER LAND WITH DISSIPATION OVER LAND EXPECTED BY TAU 36. THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF RE-DEVELOPING 32W WHEN IT RE-EMERGES INTO THE GULF OF THAILAND AND CONTINUES TRACKING WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.// NNNN NNNN