MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE) WARNING NR 02// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 33W (THIRTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 472 NM EAST OF DAVAO CITY, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 181240Z METOP-A MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF AN EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DUE TO THE ILL-DEFINED LLCC, THE INITIAL POSITION (AND INTENSITY) IS BASED ON A 181205Z ASCAT BULLSEYE IMAGE SHOWING AN ELONGATED DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T1.5 (25 KNOTS) TO T2.0 (30 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (15 TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TD 33W IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 33W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN STR. TD 33W SHOULD INTENSIFY STEADILY TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 48 UNDER GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDING WARM SST (29-30C) AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. AFTER TAU 48, TD 33W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHEAST MINDANAO, HOWEVER, ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO THE TRACK REMAINING OVER WATER NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF MINDANAO. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 100NM IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 33W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WHILE TRANSITIONING TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN STR. THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY WITH A SPREAD OF 210NM AT TAU 120, HOWEVER, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS A FLATTER TRACK AND IS POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. TD 33W SHOULD REINTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 120 UNDER MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN