MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE) WARNING NR 05// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 33W (THIRTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 679 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN ELONGATED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A SMALL AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE WEST QUADRANT AND A LARGER, MORE PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY. A 190729Z F-16 SSMIS 37H GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS WEAKLY CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WEST QUADRANT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION AND GENERALLY BROAD, SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE ELONGATED LLCC. TD 33W CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW AND WARM SST (28- 29C). DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE REMAINED FLAT AT T1.5 (25 KNOTS), HOWEVER, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS. TD 33W IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 33W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. TD 33W SHOULD INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE IN MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND CROSSES THE PHILIPPINES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 175NM IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 33W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WHILE TRANSITIONING TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN STR. THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED AND THE TIMING OF LANDFALL OVER EASTERN VIETNAM. HOWEVER, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS A FLATTER TRACK AND IS POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. TD 33W SHOULD REINTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 96 UNDER MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES OF VWS. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN