MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE) WARNING NR 08// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 728 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTLY EXPOSED, WEAK, BROAD, RAGGED, AND ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH POORLY-ORGANIZED FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLC. FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDS CAN BE SEEN SPIRALING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN FLANKS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BY EXTRAPOLATING FROM THE FORMATIVE BANDS AND MULTIPLE SPINNERS SURROUNDING THE LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5/25KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOT) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA ARE PERENNIALLY FAVORABLE AT 28-30 CELSIUS. TD 35W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. AS THE STR BUILDS, TD 35W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA TOWARD THE VISAYAN ISLANDS, MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN SAMAR JUST BEFORE TAU 48 THEN DRAG ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND, BY TAU 72, WILL BE IN THE SULU SEA JUST NORTHEAST OF PALAWAN ISLAND. DESPITE THE GOOD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS, MODERATE VWS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST, LIMITING INTENSIFICATION OF ONLY UP TO 35 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, THE ADDITION OF LAND INTERACTION WILL REDUCE THE INTENSITY DOWN TO 30 KNOTS. C. AFTER TAU 72, AS THE STR BUILDS, TD 35W WILL TRACK MORE WESTWARD AND EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) BEFORE TURNING MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 96. THE SYSTEM WILL REGAIN ONLY MINIMAL TS STRENGTH, EVEN AFTER IT CLEARS LANDMASS AND VWS DECREASES, DUE TO EXPOSURE TO A STRONG NORTHEAST WIND SURGE EVENT IN THE SCS. WITH NAVGEM AS THE SOLE NORTHWARD OUTLIER, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ALONG TRACK SPEEDS DUE TO THE PROLONGED FORMATIVE STAGE OF THE CYCLONE AND ITS ANTICIPATED TRACK ACROSS RUGGED ISLAND-TERRAIN. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN ALL PORTIONS OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS LAID JUST SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NAVGEM.// NNNN NNNN