Tropical Storm TWELVE Advisory Sat Sep 12

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120000Z --- NEAR 31.5N 138.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 31.5N 138.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 33.6N 139.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 35.7N 142.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 32.0N 138.8E.
12SEP20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
237 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THAT THE IMPROVING
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OBSERVED SIX HOURS AGO HAS SUCCUMBED
TO THE HIGH (20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), LEAVING BEHIND A
WEAK, EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE LLCC IN MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 112304Z
ASCAT-A PASS REVEALED ONLY A FEW ISOLATED 25 TO 30 KNOT WIND BARBS
UNDER DEEP CONVECTION, AND DISPLACED 75 NM FROM THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON THESE ISOLATED
ASCAT WINDS AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES, HOWEVER, THE EXPOSED LLCC
IS GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY ONLY 10-15 KNOT WINDS. 12W IS CLEARLY
INTERACTING WITH MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND IS TAKING ON EXTRA-
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED
TO BE COMPLETED WITHIN 12 HOURS, CONSISTENT WITH FSU PHASE SPACE
GUIDANCE. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS SHORT
FORECAST. JTWC FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ASSESSED AS HIGH. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 9 FEET.
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