MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 31.5N 138.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL REPEAT POSIT: 31.5N 138.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 33.6N 139.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 35.7N 142.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 120300Z POSITION NEAR 32.0N 138.8E. 12SEP20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 237 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THAT THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OBSERVED SIX HOURS AGO HAS SUCCUMBED TO THE HIGH (20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK, EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE LLCC IN MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 112304Z ASCAT-A PASS REVEALED ONLY A FEW ISOLATED 25 TO 30 KNOT WIND BARBS UNDER DEEP CONVECTION, AND DISPLACED 75 NM FROM THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON THESE ISOLATED ASCAT WINDS AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES, HOWEVER, THE EXPOSED LLCC IS GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY ONLY 10-15 KNOT WINDS. 12W IS CLEARLY INTERACTING WITH MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND IS TAKING ON EXTRA- TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETED WITHIN 12 HOURS, CONSISTENT WITH FSU PHASE SPACE GUIDANCE. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS SHORT FORECAST. JTWC FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ASSESSED AS HIGH. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 9 FEET. // NNNN NNNN