Tropical Storm JERRY Advisory Fri Sep 20

ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  40(53)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  19(22)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)

PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAN JUAN PR    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

VIEQUES PR     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

SAINT THOMAS   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

SAINT CROIX    34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

SABA           34  1   1( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

ST EUSTATIUS   34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

BARBUDA        34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

ANTIGUA        34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GUADELOUPE     34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECASTER PASCH