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Tropical Storm MARIA Advisory Fri Sep 22

ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)

SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  11(20)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

GREAT EXUMA    34  2   3( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)

SAN SALVADOR   34  2   7( 9)  14(23)   5(28)   4(32)   X(32)   X(32)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

MAYAGUANA      34 21  33(54)   3(57)   2(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
MAYAGUANA      50  2   6( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

GRAND TURK     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GRAND TURK     50 96   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
GRAND TURK     64 57   1(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

LES CAYES      34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

CAPE BEATA     34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

PUERTO PLATA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

SANTO DOMINGO  34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECASTER AVILA