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Tropical Storm GRACE Advisory Tue Aug 17

ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072021
0300 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)

MCALLEN TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)

HARLINGEN TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)

GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)   5(22)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
GFMX 250N 960W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

LA PESCA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  16(24)
LA PESCA MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
LA PESCA MX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

TAMPICO MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  16(28)
TAMPICO MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
TAMPICO MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  10(19)
TUXPAN MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
TUXPAN MX      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)

FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  25(25)   2(27)   X(27)
MERIDA MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
MERIDA MX      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  25(40)   1(41)   X(41)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   X(12)   X(12)
COZUMEL MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  21(23)   6(29)   X(29)   X(29)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

ISLE OF PINES  34  X   1( 1)  10(11)   9(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   2( 2)  36(38)   2(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
GRAND CAYMAN   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

MONTEGO BAY    34  1  18(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)

KINGSTON       34  1   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
FORECASTER ZELINSKY