Tropical Storm IRMA Advisory Sat Sep 02

ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112017
0300 UTC SAT SEP 02 2017

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1
NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100
KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

PONCE PR       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
PONCE PR       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
PONCE PR       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
AGUADILLA PR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
AGUADILLA PR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

SAN JUAN PR    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)
SAN JUAN PR    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
SAN JUAN PR    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)
VIEQUES PR     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
VIEQUES PR     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
SAINT CROIX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  23(26)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  17(20)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  23(30)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)
BARBUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)

ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  19(25)
ANTIGUA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)
ANTIGUA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  12(18)
GUADELOUPE     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
GUADELOUPE     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)

DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)
DOMINICA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
DOMINICA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)

SAINT LUCIA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

BARBADOS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
FORECASTER ZELINSKY