Tropical Storm KAREN Advisory Sun Sep 22

ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

PONCE PR       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   X(12)   X(12)

AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)

SAN JUAN PR    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)   1(17)   X(17)
SAN JUAN PR    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  28(35)   1(36)   X(36)
VIEQUES PR     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
VIEQUES PR     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  29(35)   2(37)   X(37)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  23(36)   1(37)   1(38)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   9(13)   1(14)   X(14)

SABA           34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   8(14)   1(15)   X(15)

ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   6(11)   1(12)   X(12)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)

BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

ANTIGUA        34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

GUADELOUPE     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

AVES           34  X   2( 2)  20(22)  11(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)
AVES           50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

DOMINICA       34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

MARTINIQUE     34  3   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

SAINT LUCIA    34 19   7(26)   X(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)

SAINT VINCENT  34 53  11(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)

BARBADOS       34 37   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)

GRENADA        34 18  20(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)

TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 17   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECASTER STEWART