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Tropical Storm MICHAEL Advisory Thu Oct 11

ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE MICHAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018
0300 UTC THU OCT 11 2018

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MICHAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
32.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)   X(23)   X(23)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)  16(34)   X(34)   X(34)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   1( 1)  15(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

WALLOPS CDA    34  X   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

RICHMOND VA    34  X   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X  21(21)  16(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
NORFOLK NAS    50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

NORFOLK VA     34  X  23(23)  19(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  X  23(23)  22(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X  46(46)  17(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

RALEIGH NC     34  X  29(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)

ROCKY MT NC    34  X  48(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
ROCKY MT NC    50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X  15(15)   4(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)

FAYETTEVILLE   34  X  57(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)

CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X  29(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X  15(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

SURF CITY NC   34  X  18(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X  20(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

FLORENCE SC    34  3  57(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)

COLUMBIA SC    34 38   5(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)

LITTLE RIVER   34  X  15(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X  14(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

GEORGETOWN SC  34  1   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

CHARLESTON SC  34  6   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34 23   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)

AUGUSTA GA     34 90   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
AUGUSTA GA     50  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

SAVANNAH GA    34 47   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)

WAYCROSS GA    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

ST MARKS FL    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECASTER STEWART