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Tropical Storm MICHAEL Advisory Fri Oct 12

04:00
10:00
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TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018
0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)  23(23)  14(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)  14(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   1( 1)  10(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

PTX BASQUES    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

EDDY POINT NS  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

SYDNEY NS      34  X   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

SABLE ISLAND   34  X  32(32)  38(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   3( 3)  17(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

HALIFAX NS     34  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

YARMOUTH NS    34  X  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

HYANNIS MA     34  1  10(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

NANTUCKET MA   34  2  21(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)

MONTAUK POINT  34  4   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

ATLANTIC CITY  34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

DOVER DE       34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CAPE HENLOPEN  34 18   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)

OCEAN CITY MD  34 53   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)

PAX RIVER NAS  34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

WALLOPS CDA    34 85   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)

RICHMOND VA    34 68   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)

NORFOLK NAS    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

NORFOLK VA     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

OCEANA NAS VA  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ELIZABETH CTY  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

ROCKY MT NC    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

CAPE HATTERAS  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

CHERRY PT NC   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

NEW RIVER NC   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

MOREHEAD CITY  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

$$
FORECASTER BERG
FORECASTER BERG