Tropical Storm NICHOLAS Advisory Wed Sep 15

ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICHOLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142021
0300 UTC WED SEP 15 2021

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICHOLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

ALEXANDRIA LA  34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

LAFAYETTE LA   34  1   7( 8)   2(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

NEW IBERIA LA  34  1   6( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)

FORT POLK LA   34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

LAKE CHARLES   34  7   5(12)   2(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

CAMERON LA     34  7   5(12)   2(14)   X(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)

JASPER TX      34  3   1( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

KOUNTZE TX     34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34  4   5( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

GALVESTON TX   34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

HIGH ISLAND TX 34  3   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECASTER BEVEN