Tropical Storm KAMMURI Advisory Mon Dec 02

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY KAMMURI HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED
40KTS (65-105KTS) OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH A ROUND EYE.
A 020509Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE EYE FEATURES PRESENT IN ANIMATED
AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105KTS IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT TY 29W IS IN A REGION CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW (10-
15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. TY KAMMURI IS TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 29W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND INTENSIFY TO 110KTS BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL BY TAU 12 NEAR LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES WHERE IT WILL
DECREASE IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND. AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL TEMPORARILY ERODE
THE STR, CAUSING TY 29W TO BEGIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS IT
MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BY TAU 30. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. BY TAU 72, WINDS FROM A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT WILL
BEGIN TO STEER TY 29W SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL LEAD TO A
STEEP DECREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH THE SYSTEM BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AT TAU 72 AND
COMPLETING DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK, WITH AFUM THE SOLE
OUTLIER, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
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