MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE) WARNING NR 16// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 461 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE WEST OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 280034Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION. A 280600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION WITH SMALLER CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE NEAR THE CENTROID OF THE CIRCULATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. TD 35W IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 35W IS TRACKING WESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. THROUGH TAU 72, TD 35W WILL TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. TD 35W WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY DUE TO STRONG OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY PERSISTENT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION WITH THE PHILIPPINES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM WHICH IS INDICATING A TRACK FARTHER TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 35W WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT AND INTERACTION WITH A WEAK CIRCULATION LOCATED IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. TD 35W WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN