Tropical Storm MAN-YI Advisory Fri Nov 23

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 34W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 796 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), HOWEVER, A 230407Z AMSR2 36GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 90
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM
ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE
NORTH. TY 34W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 34W IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 24, HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AND TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS A STRONG, BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS SOUTH OF JAPAN. LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO ADVECT COOLER, MORE
STABLE AIR INTO THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SHARP WEAKENING
TREND. DUE TO THE COMPLEX, QUICKLY-EVOLVING SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT,
THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER TAU 24 WITH A 276NM
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.
    C. AFTER TAU 72, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE
WITH A 651NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. ADDITIONALLY, HIGH
UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH INCONSISTENT MODEL FORECASTS, WHICH NOW
INDICATE A RECURVE TRACK/WEAK EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT),
REFLECT A CHALLENGING FORECAST SCENARIO. ALTHOUGH TY 34W WILL BEGIN
ETT NEAR TAU 96 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE, TY 34W IS NOT FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF
COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR. THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO
FAVOR A DISSIPATION SCENARIO. DUE TO THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING SCENARIO,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR BUT SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
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