Tropical Storm SANBA Advisory Fri Feb 09

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
A 090618Z 89 GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING WEAK BANDING AND
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30
KNOTS IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) AND
HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW A 090616Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
AND A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, RANGING FROM 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
TD 02W IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST BUILDS AND THE STR TO THE
NORTHEAST WEAKENS. AS TD 02W BEGINS TO ROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
STR IT WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD. TD 02W WILL EXPERIENCE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND TRACK OVER WARM WATER ALLOWING
IT TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 48. SHORTLY
AFTER TAU 48, TD 02W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS IT
ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, BEYOND 72 HOURS, TD 02W WILL SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN IN INTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS AS IT APPROACHES MINDANAO IN THE
SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES. BY TAU 96 TD 02W WEAKEN TO 40 KNOTS DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. AFTER TAU 96, TD 02W
WILL MOVE INTO THE SULU SEA WHERE IT WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH WARM OCEAN WATER.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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