Tropical Storm SANBA Advisory Sun Feb 11

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (TWO) WARNING NR
11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 92 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE LLC ALMOST FULLY EXPOSED AS IT TRAILED
A LARGE BALL OF CENTRAL CONVECTION SHEARED WESTWARD OF THE LLC. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE MSI LOOP AND
LINES UP VERY WELL WITH A WEAK BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW REFLECTIVITY
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 110551Z 36GHZ MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T2.5. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VWS; HOWEVER, A
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN ADDITION TO WARM (29C) SSTS, IS HELPING
SUSTAIN THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TS 02W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 02W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STR
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES THROUGH TAU 36. THE AFOREMENTIONED
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
INTENSIFICATION UP TO 45 KNOTS AROUND TAU 24 TO TAU 36. AFTERWARD,
THE STR WILL SLIGHTLY BUILD AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN MINDANAO. LAND INTERACTION WILL ERODE
THE SYSTEM AND BY TAU 72, IT WILL BE REDUCED TO A 30-KNOT TD AS IT
EXITS INTO THE SULU SEA.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 02W WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD, IN
RESPONSE TO A RECEDING STR, AND CROSS PALAWAN NEAR PUERTO PRINCESA
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS). MARGINAL CONDITIONS IN THE SCS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD SURGE WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TO 25 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT
PRIOR TO INITIAL LANDFALL LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AFTERWARD, THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONG THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS, LENDING LOW
CONFIDENCE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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