Tropical Storm TORAJI Advisory Sat Nov 17

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (TORAJI)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (TORAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 199
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHT BALL
OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTH OF A PARTIALLY OBSCURED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 171407Z AMSU 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS HEDGED
BETWEEN THE CENTER POSITION INDICATED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE PGTW FIX BASED ON EIR IMAGERY. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW TO MODERATE
(10-20 KTS) AND THERE IS ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW HELPING TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30
KNOTS BASED ON THE KNES AND RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS), SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PGTW
ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KTS). TD 32W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 32W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 12 TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR, WHICH SEPARATES THE
EASTERN AND WESTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGES. AFTER TAU 12, TD 32W
WILL TRACK UNDER THE WESTERN STR, WHICH WILL PRODUCE A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH COAMPS-GFS AND HWRF THE SOUTHERN
OUTLIERS. ALL MODELS BUT COAMPS-GFS DEPICT TD 32W MAKING
LANDFALL IN THE NEAR TERM. TD 32W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY UNDER
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL AT
APPROXIMATELY TAU 6 TO THE NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY,
VIETNAM. AFTER TAU 12, TD 32W WILL WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OVER LAND WITH DISSIPATION OVER LAND
EXPECTED BY TAU 36. THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF
RE-DEVELOPING 32W WHEN IT RE-EMERGES INTO THE GULF OF THAILAND
AND CONTINUES TRACKING WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
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