Tropical Storm SANBA Advisory Sat Feb 10

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 242 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM REMAINS
DISORGANIZED AND WEAK WITH FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDS LOOSELY
FEEDING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
BROAD CIRCULATION IN THE MSI AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A RAGGED NOTCH
FEATURE IN THE 100407Z ATMS MICROWAVE PASS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE
MSI ALSO INDICATES A POSSIBLE SECONDARY CIRCULATION JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T0.5 TO T1.5.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
(15-20 KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ON THE PLUS SIDE,
ALONG-TRACK SSTS ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29-30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE STR
TOWARD MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 40 KNOTS
BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, LANDFALL AND THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MINDANAO
WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 02W WILL CROSS THE SULU SEA AND THE
ISLAND OF PALAWAN, BEFORE TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA AS THE STR RECEDES. REDUCED VWS AND INCREASED OUTFLOW WILL
FAVOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AT THIS PHASE, BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO
40 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
UNCERTAINTY IN ITS INITIAL POSITION AND STORM MOTION, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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