Tropical Storm MANGKHUT Advisory Sun Sep 16

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT) WARNING NR 37//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 111 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
WHICH SHOWS A CLOUD-FILLED EYE AND A PARTIAL EYEWALL THAT IS OPEN TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED NEAR THE MIDDLE OF
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T5.0 (65-102
KTS). TY 26W IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 CELSIUS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING.
   B. TY 26W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF HONG KONG JUST
PRIOR TO TAU 12, AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND AROUND TAU 48. THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY ALIGNS WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH, ASIDE FROM
HWRF AND COAMPS-GFS, IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER
TAU 24, THE ECMWF MODEL DIVERGES TO THE SOUTH OF THE REMAINING
GUIDANCE. THIS MAY BE DUE TO DIFFICULTLY TRACKING THE CIRCULATION IN
THE MODEL BEYOND TAU 24. LIKEWISE, THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY
ALIGNS WITH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WHICH CALLS FOR STEADY TO RAPID
WEAKENING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. BASED ON INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
BEYOND TAU 24, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH THROUGH
TAU 24 AND FAIR AFTERWARD.//
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