Tropical Storm BARIJAT Advisory Tue Sep 11

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (BARIJAT)
WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 27W (BARIJAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 186 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SMALL AND DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT IS
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON A WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN
THE 110939Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS
IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM PGTW AND RJTD.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29-30 CELSIUS) ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE; HOWEVER, THERE IS A STEADY SURGE
OF COOL DRY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT
INTO TS 27W. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING.
   B. TS BARIJAT WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STR
WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED (PEAK OF 40 KNOTS) IN VIEW OF
THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 36, THE ADDED LAND INTERACTION
WITH LEIZHOU PENINSULA, CHINA, WILL RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING,
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72, AFTER LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
VIETNAM, JUST EAST OF HANOI. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS OVER TIME, UP TO 284 NM BY TAU 72, LENDING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
NNNN