Tropical Storm BARIJAT Advisory Wed Sep 12

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (BARIJAT) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (BARIJAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING THE MSI IMAGERY AND RJTD RADAR FIXES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS AVERAGED BETWEEN RJTD AND PGTW
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 AND T3.0 (35-45 KTS). THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (15-20 KT)
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, NO
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 29
CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SHALLOW, WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING.
   B. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TS 27W WILL CONTINUE ON A
WESTWARD TRACK. INCREASED LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 24. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36, THE CYCLONE WILL
MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTH VIETNAM AND THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
15 KTS BY TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO HIGH SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE.//
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