Tropical Storm BARIJAT Advisory Thu Sep 13

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (BARIJAT) WARNING
NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (BARIJAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 263 NM
EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF
A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 122245Z
WINDSAT 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED LLCC WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
ZHANJIANG, CHINA (59658), APPROXIMATELY 15NM WSW OF THE CENTER,
INDICATE WESTERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1004.5MB. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TS 27W IS
TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS BARIJAT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE LEIZHOU
PENINSULA. THROUGH TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF TONKIN AND WILL THEN MAKE LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM JUST AFTER
TAU 12 WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 36. TS 27W MAY INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY BETWEEN TAU 0 AND TAU 12, HOWEVER, MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS INCLUDING WEAK DIFFLUENCE, LAND INTERACTION AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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