Tropical Storm KALMAEGI Advisory Wed Nov 20

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING
NR 31//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103 NM
NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON A POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTH AS SEEN IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 40 KNOT INITIAL INTENSITY REFLECTS THE
WEAKENED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND IS CONSISTENT WITH AN EARLIER
200134Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWING 35-40 KNOT WINDS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF LUZON IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. STRONG (25-30 KT)
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND LAND INTERACTION ARE
OVERCOMING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT
UNFAVORABLE. TS 27W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND TAU 48, TS 27W WILL TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. DESPITE MOVING OVER THE
SCS BEFORE TAU 12, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE WITH
CONVERGENCE ALOFT. STEADY WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.
THERE IS STRONG CROSS TRACK AGREEMENT AND FAIR ALONG-TRACK AGREEMENT
IN NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
NNNN