Tropical Storm KONG-REY Advisory Sat Sep 29

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (THIRTY) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 79 NM
SOUTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH LIMITED AND FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE
BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A PARTLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 282053Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON EQUIVALENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
SHOWS TS 30W IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA WITH LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO FAVORABLE AT 30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST AND FUEL GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL SPREADING TO
150-NM BY TAU 72. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS LAID NEAR THE CONSENSUS.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 30W WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND
BY TAU 120, WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA,
JAPAN. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND ALLOW
TS 30W TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS (POSSIBLY HIGHER) BY
TAU 96 BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING MAINLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS. AFTER
TAU 96, TS 30W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AXIS
AND TURN SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY
SPREADS OUT WITH EEMN AS THE NOTABLE LEFT OUTLIER AND CTCX ON THE
RIGHT MARGIN OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. IN VIEW OF THE LARGE SPREAD (OVER
470 NM AT TAU 120), THE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW.//
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