Tropical Storm KONG-REY Advisory Sat Oct 06

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
RMKS/
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING
NR 33//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 6 NM SOUTH
OF CHINHAE, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SMALL AREA OF PERSISTENT CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION, WITH A
CLOUD SHIELD AND WEAKENING SPIRAL RAIN BANDS STRETCHING TO THE
NORTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS IS UNDER THE KNES AND PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T4.0 (65 KTS), BUT CONSISTENT WITH THE RJTD ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55
KTS). NEARBY OBSERVATIONS FROM 14-60 NM AWAY REFLECT WINDS RANGING
FROM 37-44 KTS AND PRESSURES FROM 979-993 MB. 979 MB WOULD SUPPORT
58 KTS OF WIND OVER OPEN WATER WITHOUT TERRAIN EFFECTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT, EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IS BEING OFFSET BY HIGH (25-40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST DAY AND CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS NOT YET BEEN SHEARED AWAY FROM THE CENTER. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW 26C AND NO LONGER FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS NOW ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 30W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU 6, TS
30W WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT TRACKS OVER COOL WATERS BELOW 26 DEGREES C AND INTERACTS WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS BRUSHING THE KOREAN
PENINSULA, AND LAND INTERACTION WILL ALSO HELP WEAKEN TS 30W IN THE
NEAR-TERM. TS 30W WILL COMPLETE ETT AROUND TAU 18. THE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP A BROAD, ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD AND FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS
AS IT TRANSITIONS, MAINTAINING GALE-FORCE WINDS THROUGH TAU 36. THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE PRIOR FORECAST TRACK AND
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. BY TAU 24, MODEL SPREAD IS 88 NM, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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