Tropical Storm TORAJI Advisory Tue Nov 20

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (TORAJI)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (TORAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VI, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE WITH FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO AN OCCLUDED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND SUPPORTED BY A
201139Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS VERY WEAK BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL NOTCH FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25
KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND THE OVERALL REDUCED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAK
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH A PRESENT THOUGH WEAK AND POORLY ORGANIZED
POLAR OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TD TORAJI IS TRACKING SOUTH-WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 32W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE EXTENSION. AROUND TAU 12, THE RIDGE
EXTENSION BREAKS OFF AND FORMS A SECOND ANTI-CYCLONE CENTERED IN THE
BAY OF BENGAL. THE NEW ANTI-CYCLONE TAKES OVER AS PRIMARY STEERING
FEATURE HOWEVER, THE SHIFT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE SYSTEMS
TRACK WHICH CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHWEST. TD TORAJI IS FORECAST TO
MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE CENTRAL MAYLAY PENINSULA SHORTLY BEFORE TAU
12. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE STRAIT OF MALACCA PRIOR TO TAU 24.
GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF THAILAND WILL ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION TO 30 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
AFTER LANDFALL, THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL
PREVENT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN A
WEAKENING TREND. THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE STRAIT OF MALACCA WITH AN
INTENSITY OF AROUND 30 KNOTS. ONCE IN THE STRAIT, HIGH VWS WILL
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 25 KNOTS WHICH IS BELOW BASIN WARNING CRITERIA.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING
OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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