Tropical Storm USAGI Advisory Sun Nov 18

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 33W (THIRTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
472 NM EAST OF DAVAO CITY, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 181240Z METOP-A MHS 89GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF AN EXPOSED, BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DUE TO THE ILL-DEFINED LLCC,
THE INITIAL POSITION (AND INTENSITY) IS BASED ON A 181205Z ASCAT
BULLSEYE IMAGE SHOWING AN ELONGATED DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO
30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T1.5 (25 KNOTS) TO T2.0 (30 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG (15 TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TD 33W IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 33W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
EASTERN STR. TD 33W SHOULD INTENSIFY STEADILY TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 48
UNDER GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDING WARM SST (29-30C) AND
STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. AFTER TAU 48, TD 33W WILL MAKE LANDFALL
OVER NORTHEAST MINDANAO, HOWEVER, ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO THE TRACK REMAINING OVER
WATER NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF MINDANAO. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 100NM IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 33W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WHILE TRANSITIONING
TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN STR. THERE IS INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY WITH A SPREAD OF 210NM AT TAU 120, HOWEVER, THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK FAVORS A FLATTER TRACK AND IS POSITIONED ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. TD
33W SHOULD REINTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 120 UNDER
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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