MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE) WARNING NR 17// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 33W (THIRTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 537 NM EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 220707Z F-15 SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, DEFINED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIVERGENCE. TD 33W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 33W IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 12 AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW- LEVEL STR FORECAST TO BUILD OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA. TD 33W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY, UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF VIETNAM AND WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE RUGGED VIETNAMESE TERRAIN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN