Tropical Storm USAGI Advisory Sun Nov 25

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 33W (USAGI) WARNING NR
29//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 33W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THAT HAS OBSCURED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AND MOST OF THE RAIN BANDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 250550Z ATMS 88 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE WHICH SHOWS SOME DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A RJTD DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS). MODERATE (15-20 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LAND
INTERACTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE HAS RESULTED IN A
WEAKENING TREND. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 33W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, MAKE
LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF HO CHI MINH CITY AROUND TAU 6, AND DISSIPATE
OVER LAND BY TAU 36. THE REMNANTS OF TS 33W MAY EMERGE OVER THE GULF
OF THAILAND AFTER TAU 48 AND POTENTIALLY RE-INTENSIFY. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED JUST LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SHORT DURATION OF THE FORECAST AND 75 NM OF
SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AT TAU 36.//
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