Tropical Storm MAN-YI Advisory Thu Nov 22

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 34W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1109 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DESPITE
PERSISTENT STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 220650Z F-16 SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE REVEALS A PARTIAL EYEWALL OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH
FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. OVERALL, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND KNES RANGING FROM T4.5 (77 KNOTS) TO T5.0 (90 KNOTS). TY 34W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 34W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD THROUGH
TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
STR POSITIONED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO RECURVE
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING
INTO JAPAN AFTER TAU 24. LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLOW THE SYSTEM'S FORWARD MOTION AND
TURN THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD. ADDITIONALLY, COLD AIR
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH WILL SERVE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TY
34W. DUE TO THE COMPLEX, QUICKLY-EVOLVING SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT, THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER TAU 48 WITH A 225NM SPREAD
IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.
    C. AFTER TAU 72, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE
WITH A 335NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. THE BULK OF THE MODELS
INDICATE RAPID WEAKENING EXCEPT NAVGEM AND JGSM, WHICH MAINTAIN
TYPHOON STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECAST FAVORS A RAPID WEAKENING SCENARIO AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION
SCENARIO ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE, WHICH WILL ADVECT
COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE SYSTEM (I.E., THE JGSM AND NAVGEM
INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE ASSESSED AS UNLIKELY). OVERALL, THERE IS A
LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT DAY 4 TO 5 TRACK FORECAST,
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
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