Tropical Storm MAN-YI Advisory Sat Nov 24

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 508 NM SOUTHWEST OF
IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR
WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE
CENTER, AND RAIN BANDS IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING A 240626Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE WHICH
SHOWED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-
29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. TY 34W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 34W WILL TURN MORE WESTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
RE-ORIENTS TO THE NORTH. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
MORE HOSTILE TO THE CYCLONE AS HIGH VWS AND DRY AIR CAUSE THE SYSTEM
TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE PRESENTS
A WIDE ARRAY OF POSSIBLE TRACKS DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE
ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE STR. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK, NUDGED TOWARD THE
ECMWF AND GALWEM SOLUTIONS, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
NNNN