Tropical Storm MAN-YI Advisory Sun Nov 25

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 504 NM SOUTHWEST OF
IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM
REMAINS IN A QUASI-STATIONARY STATE WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION.
THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS OBSCURED BY THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BY
EXTRAPOLATING FROM A 250356Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH
REVEALS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS
IS
BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5-T5.0 (77-90 KTS).
THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF VERY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
BUT REMAINS IN A LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LOCATION FOR THE
TIME BEING. OTHERWISE, THERE IS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM
(28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO SUPPORT THE CYCLONE. THE
CYCLONE IS LOCATED IN A COL BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST AND ANOTHER TO THE WEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 34W IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND BEGIN TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY TAU 48, THE CYCLONE WILL
CROSS THE AXIS OF THE STR TO THE EAST AND BEGIN GRADUALLY TURNING
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BY TAU
24, HIGH VWS IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES BY TAU 72. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE CYCLONE WILL
MAINTAIN WARNING INTENSITY LONGER. IF IT DOES MAINTAIN INTENSITY, IT
WILL BE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
BEGINNING AFTER TAU 48 AND COMPLETING BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
NNNN