Tropical Storm THIRTYFIVE Advisory Thu Dec 27

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE)
WARNING NR 12 RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
579 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A
270600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. TD 35W HAS BEEN RELOCATED
FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING BASED ON THE LLCC WHICH IS EVIDENT IN MSI.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TD
35W IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WHICH IS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD
35W IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 72, TD 35W WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW TD 35W TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY, REACHING 35 KNOTS BY TAU 36. A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE
STR WILL ALLOW TD 35W TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD. BY TAU 36, THE STR WILL
BUILD AND TD 35W WILL TRACK WESTWARD. LAND INTERACTION WITH THE
PHILIPPINES THROUGH TAU 60 WILL ALSO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AFUM WHICH FAVORS
A TRACK FARTHER TO THE NORTH. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 35 WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
EDGE OF AN STR LOCATED OVER THE MALAY PENINSULA. WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND IMPROVING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW TD 35W TO
REACH AN INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK WITH AFUM
COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE OTHER CONSENSUS MEMBERS.
OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR RELOCATION: RELOCATED INITIAL POSITION OF TD 35W
BASED ON LLCC EVIDENT IN MSI.//
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