Tropical Storm THIRTYFIVE Advisory Fri Dec 28

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE)
WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
461 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE
WEST OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 280034Z
METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED IN A WEST
TO EAST ORIENTATION. A 280600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS
THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION WITH SMALLER CIRCULATIONS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE NEAR THE CENTROID OF THE CIRCULATIONS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
(CI) ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. TD 35W IS EXPERIENCING
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS OFFSET BY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE,
BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 35W IS TRACKING WESTWARD WHILE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 72, TD 35W WILL TRACK WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STR. TD 35W WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY DUE TO STRONG OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY PERSISTENT MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION WITH THE PHILIPPINES.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF NAVGEM WHICH IS INDICATING A TRACK FARTHER TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER,
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 35W WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD
IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT AND INTERACTION WITH A WEAK
CIRCULATION LOCATED IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. TD 35W WILL REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL
POSITION AND THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS
LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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